A halving in Victoria’s benchmark benchmark index has left many investors worried about their portfolio value.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has said it has been expecting a 4.9 per cent drop in the Melbourne benchmark index since July.
It has also warned of a potential 6.5 per cent fall in the capital’s share prices, the latest in a series of losses in the city’s stock market.
While many investors in the state have managed to stay in the game, there are fears that the decline is set to widen, especially for small investors.
Mr Choudhary said that while the market had bounced back from the initial dip, the outlook for the market in the coming months was not looking good.
“The big issue for me is the decline in the Australian dollar,” he said.
“[I have] seen some investors saying they’re not expecting that much of a bounce in the future.
The latest figures show the capital is down almost $200 million from its peak of $1.7 billion in mid-2013, and is forecast to fall back to $1 billion by the end of the year. “
There’s a lot of people who have made the wrong call.”
The latest figures show the capital is down almost $200 million from its peak of $1.7 billion in mid-2013, and is forecast to fall back to $1 billion by the end of the year.
With the capital now expected to fall to $800 million by the year’s end, Mr Choudtary said investors were at a real risk of losing money.
He said that even if the stock market had continued to rally, he would have been happy to see a return of the capital to a more sustainable level.
But the latest numbers do not bode well for the future of the Australian economy, with the Government predicting the economy will shrink by just 2.6 per cent in the year ahead.
A key reason for this, according to Mr Chaudtary, is the rise in imports and the decline of local manufacturing.
His comments come just days after the Victorian Government’s economic advisor, John Walshe, said the state was in “the worst state of the country” and was facing a “global slowdown”.
“We’ve got a global slowdown and we’ve got an export downturn, that’s all on top of that,” Mr Walse said.
“We have very few export industries.”
“In the short term we’ll have a slowdown in exports, and that’s what we’re seeing with the growth in imports,” he added.
Victoria is already in the middle of a severe downturn in the construction sector, with a series, which includes the construction of $4.6 billion in new houses, stalled because of the severe winter storms that hit the state.
According to Mr Welshe, Victoria’s biggest export sector is its mining industry, with construction output down more than 40 per cent.
However, the decline has not been confined to Victoria’s capital city.
At the same time, the State Government is facing serious problems in the mining industry in Western Australia, with prices falling from their peak in the early 2000s.
In Tasmania, where the mining boom is now over, prices are down from their early 2000 peak, and are down to their lowest level in years.
Despite this, the Federal Government is keen to continue building the nation’s biggest mining and energy infrastructure projects.
On Monday, the federal Government announced it was spending $1bn on a $20 billion infrastructure plan in Queensland, with $5bn of that coming from the state’s mineral exploration fund.
Meanwhile, the Victorian state government is seeking $400 million in public funds to upgrade its electricity network, including $300 million from the Queensland government.
And while it is a good start to the summer, Mr Waguesse said the outlook is grim for the state in the short-term.
”We’re in the worst state in Australia, we have a global recession, we’ve had a global downturn, we can’t get out of this, and the Government needs to make changes to keep our economy moving forward,” he told the ABC.
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